Academician Douses Hopes: “It’s Best Not to Sell” Solid-State Battery Cars—Today’s Electric Vehicles Are Already Excellent

Technological revolutions are never achieved overnight; rather than waiting for a “myth,” we should embrace the realities that have already matured.

“By the end of this year and next year, several vehicle models will undergo testing with solid-state batteries. Although solid-state battery products have not yet been officially launched, marketing efforts are already underway—yet actual sales have not commenced. Out of caution, it’s best to refrain from selling them for the next two years.”

If these words had come from some self-media blogger, most people would just chuckle and move on. But the person who said them is Ouyang Minggao, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences—one of the most authoritative experts in China’s new-energy-vehicle sector.

On March 13, at the 2026 Auto Industry Association Research Institute Expert-Media Exchange Meeting, Ouyang Minggao’s candid remark came as a much-needed dose of reality for the red-hot all-solid-state battery sector.

At a time when automakers are racing to unveil production schedules and capital is fervently chasing this trend, the assessment of this authoritative expert stands out as particularly jarring—and has sparked profound reflection across the industry.

Many people are waiting for solid-state batteries—no need to wait.

Ouyang Minggao stated bluntly: “Many people are waiting for solid-state batteries, but I don’t think we need to wait—electric vehicles today are already excellent.” -9

Why are solid-state batteries being hailed so highly? Today, the vast majority of electric vehicles are equipped with liquid lithium-ion batteries. Liquid electrolytes have an inherent drawback: they are highly flammable. If a short circuit occurs inside the battery or if it overheats, a fire can easily break out.

What about solid-state batteries? By replacing the liquid electrolyte with a solid one, they’re theoretically safer and can accommodate higher-energy-density materials, easily pushing range beyond 1,000 kilometers. Doesn’t that sound perfect? 9

As a result, public opinion has begun to mythologize solid-state batteries: they’re said to be fireproof, deliver ultra-long range, and support fast charging. Whoever achieves mass production first wins; whoever falls behind gets left behind.

However, Ouyang Minggao directly debunked this myth: Solid-state batteries are not “hexagonal warriors.” , nor can it be done.

What does that mean? It means don’t expect it to excel in every single aspect. Solid-state batteries do offer high energy density, but when it comes to safety, cost, and cycle life, there are still numerous challenges that need to be addressed. The technology is still in its early stages, with many tough problems yet to be solved; if we hype it up too much now, it’s easy for the bubble to burst.

He even used eight characters: “ Don’t rush or scramble—take your time and proceed with composure. ”

Leading the World in Patents, Yet Concealing Underlying Concerns

When it comes to all-solid-state batteries, many people immediately think of Toyota, which has been investing in this field for more than a decade. However, Ouyang Minggao has made it clear that China’s progress in all-solid-state battery technology is astonishing, with the country now shifting from “catching up” to “running alongside” and even, in certain areas, taking the lead.

“China truly began to ramp up its efforts in all-solid-state batteries in 2024, and in just one year we achieved a qualitative leap,” Ouyang Minggao revealed. As of 2025, newly disclosed all-solid-state battery patents in China already account for the global… 44% , officially surpassing Japan to become the global leader in patent filings for all-solid-state batteries.

This achievement is no accident. According to data from Qichacha, as of the end of 2025, China has already 14,400 items Patents related to solid-state batteries, with invention patents accounting for over 90% of the total, underscore a robust R&D capability.

Ouyang Minggao candidly acknowledged that this is underpinned by China’s massive battery industry base. “The output value of our battery industry has already reached RMB 3 to 4 trillion, with at least one million engineers and 100,000 graduate students dedicated to the field.” 3

In addition to its patent leadership, China has also made breakthroughs in the production capacity and cost control of core materials for all-solid-state batteries. Ouyang Minggao specifically highlighted sulfide-based solid electrolytes—one of the key components of all-solid-state batteries.

“The cost of sulfide solid electrolytes has declined faster than expected, starting from the initial…” RMB 20 million per ton , has dropped to the current level of below 1 million yuan per ton “China’s production capacity is also expanding rapidly.” 13

This development is bringing the industrialization of all-solid-state batteries ever closer.

However, Ouyang Minggao remains far from optimistic. He has repeatedly emphasized, “ Technology does not happen overnight. “Even if China has taken the lead in patents and production capacity, it does not mean that we have yet overcome all the technical challenges associated with all-solid-state batteries.”

In fact, despite the cost reductions achieved in sulfide-based solid electrolytes, numerous challenges remain. High-purity lithium sulfide remains prohibitively expensive, production must be conducted under strictly anhydrous and anaerobic conditions, and the capital investment required for the necessary equipment is astronomical.

Even more critically, sulfide electrolytes themselves have inherent drawbacks: their density is more than 30% higher than that of liquid electrolytes, they release highly toxic gases upon exposure to moisture, and contact with nickel-rich cathodes can even trigger spontaneous combustion. 4。

“The progress we are seeing today is merely the tip of the iceberg. All-solid-state batteries represent a revolutionary technology with an exceptionally high barrier to entry, and the challenges inherent in such breakthroughs are far greater than most people realize.” Ouyang Minggao’s remarks precisely capture the true state of China’s all-solid-state battery industry: beneath the halo of leadership in patents and production capacity lie numerous formidable hurdles that urgently need to be overcome in fundamental science and large-scale manufacturing processes.

A revolutionary breakthrough must pass “multiple hurdles.”

Why does Ouyang Minggao advise against selling all-solid-state battery vehicles in the next two years? There is only one core reason: The technology is simply not mature yet. 。

In his view, overcoming the technical challenges of all-solid-state batteries is not a matter of breakthroughs in a single link; rather, it requires a comprehensive, multi-dimensional effort spanning key materials, interfaces, electrodes, and battery cells. If any one of these links has a weakness, industrial-scale deployment will remain unattainable.

He likens the technological breakthrough in all-solid-state batteries to a wooden bucket: it’s not enough for just one stave to be long; every stave must be of equal length.

Level 1: Stability of Electrolytes Electrochemical stability, air stability, thermal stability, and mechanical stability—each of these “stabilities” entails a host of technical challenges.

Level 2: Stability of Composite Positive and Negative Electrodes The significant disparity in the physical properties between solid electrolytes and electrode materials readily leads to interfacial voids, causing a sharp decline in ionic transport efficiency.

Level 3: Thermal Stability of High-Capacity Battery Cells In the lab, only small-sized button cells perform well, but automobiles require high-capacity battery cells. The two are fundamentally different, and the risk of thermal runaway cannot be ignored.

Level 4: The Ultimate Challenge of Lithium Metal Anodes 。

To overcome these challenges, Ouyang Minggao’s team proposed “ Three-generation technology roadmap “Progressively advancing the technological breakthroughs in all-solid-state batteries:”

First Generation (2025–2027): Graphite and low-silicon anode sulfide all-solid-state batteries, with the goal of 200-300Wh/kg , overcome challenges in sulfide-based composite electrolytes and establish a complete technology pipeline;

Second Generation (2027–2030): High-silicon anode sulfide all-solid-state batteries, with the following objectives: 400Wh/kg , tackling the development of high-capacity silicon-carbon anodes;

Third Generation (2030–2035): Lithium-Anode Sulfide All-Solid-State Batteries, Objectives 500Wh/kg , tackling the challenges of lithium-metal anodes 7。

Ouyang Minggao candidly acknowledged that, by the end of this year and next year, a number of vehicle models equipped with all-solid-state batteries will indeed enter the testing phase; however, there is still a considerable gap between testing and large-scale mass production.

Let’s take a concrete example. Last year, BYD unveiled its “Global Flash Charge” technology, which involves deep, end-to-end optimization across the entire value chain—from the battery system and silicon carbide chips to thermal management—before being launched on the market. Importantly, this breakthrough builds upon the well-established lithium iron phosphate chemistry. -3-4。

What is an all-solid-state battery? It’s a “new species” with even more disruptive technology. Its validation cycle will only be longer. 4。

Ouyang Minggao offered a rational assessment: “ Most likely still 3 to 5 years. “In the early stages of widespread adoption, an energy density of 300–350 watt-hours per kilogram will be sufficient.” 7

The higher the specific energy, the greater the technical challenges and the more difficult it is to maintain quality control. Rather than trying to achieve everything in one fell swoop only to stumble, it’s better to proceed step by step and ensure that each step is firmly grounded.

Lithium iron phosphate flash charging with best-in-class range

Today’s lithium iron phosphate batteries can already achieve 1,000 km of range , low cost, and can also achieve 10-minute fast charge What could ordinary consumers possibly be unsatisfied with when they drive a car? 4

More importantly, lithium iron phosphate boasts unparalleled advantages in stability and cycle life—advantages that no other battery technology can yet match. In the energy storage sector, this capability is achievable. 15,000 cycles, 20-year lifespan Can all-solid-state batteries really work? We’re still a long way from that.

“We aim for all-solid-state batteries to achieve the high specific energy of lithium iron phosphate batteries while maintaining their safety—but we haven’t yet succeeded.” 4

Ouyang Minggao revealed that lithium iron phosphate batteries reached 1.7 billion kWh installed capacity, growth rate 60% , although the energy density limit is difficult to exceed 200 Wh/kg, as a “ Ballast and Fundamentals ,”“It is impossible to change lanes at will.”

Even in the era of solid-state batteries, lithium iron phosphate batteries will remain in use for the long term. Ouyang Minggao stated that the advent of all-solid-state batteries has merely broadened the “trade-off balance” range for battery performance; it cannot break the “impossible triangle” of energy density, safety, and cost—no single battery can simultaneously achieve optimal performance across all three dimensions. 3。

Reject rushing progress; technological revolutions cannot be forced.

Ouyang Minggao’s latest statement is aimed not only at the technology itself, but also at the “…” that is spreading throughout the all-solid-state battery sector. Impatience Syndrome ”。

He directly raised two questions: Academic innovation is decoupled from product commercialization, and capital speculation diverges from industrial logic. 。

“Academic innovation focuses on a technology’s strengths, and as soon as a paper is published, the media touts it as a ‘major breakthrough.’ Yet the success of a product depends on its weaknesses.” 4

Ouyang Minggao offers a particularly incisive analysis of the logic of capital: “The logic of capital is this: when most people still can’t make sense of it, it hypees the technology to an almost mythical status, luring everyone into the fray. By the time people finally understand what’s really going on, the capital has already pulled out.” 3

However, the logic of industry is different. What industry demands is the concrete, real-world application of technology—long-term refinement and optimization, and steady, incremental progress, one step at a time.

What is the greatest risk posed by this impetuous mindset? It is the technology of all-solid-state batteries… Premature birth “—pushing products onto the market with safety hazards, ultimately leaving consumers to foot the bill and damaging the industry’s reputation.”

Ouyang Minggao offered a vivid analogy:

“New technologies are like a combustion explosion—they require fuel, air, and an ignition source, which correspond to technology, the market, and policy, respectively. Only when these three elements resonate in unison can explosive growth be achieved.” 3

Is the market hot right now? It’s absolutely frenzied. Are the policies effective? They certainly are. But has the technology caught up? Not even close. 4。

He also identified a recurring pattern: the development of emerging technologies typically experiences two distinct peaks. The first is a capital-driven bubble; only after the bubble bursts and the industry navigates the “valley of death” can it reach a second, genuine peak of industrialization.

China’s electric-vehicle industry did not experience an initial bubble-driven boom; instead, it steadily accumulated momentum over time and ultimately emerged as a dominant force.

“All-solid-state batteries should also follow this principle.”

4

Advice for consumers: Don’t rush—good food is worth the wait.

For ordinary consumers, Ouyang Minggao’s advice is very clear:

“There will definitely be vehicles undergoing testing by the end of this year, but industrialization and large-scale production will likely still take about 3…” ~ Over five years, the energy density of early-stage commercial solid-state batteries will reach 300. ~ A specific energy of 350 Wh/kg is sufficient; the higher the energy density, the greater the technical challenges and the more difficult it is to maintain stringent quality control. Currently, there are companies marketing solid-state batteries, but none are actually selling them. To be on the safe side, it’s best not to buy one in the next two years. ”7

In terms of cost, lithium iron phosphate batteries have already brought the price of electric vehicles down to around RMB 100,000. If you wait for solid-state batteries, do you really think their mass-production prices will be lower than they are today? 9

The only drawback, as Ouyang Minggao also pointed out, is that it’s a bit heavy. A 150-kWh battery capable of powering a vehicle for 1,000 kilometers might weigh as much as one ton. But this trade-off comes at the cost of… A mature and reliable technical system 。

Would you be willing to wait another three to five years for solid-state batteries that “might be better”? 9

Ouyang Minggao’s caution that “it’s best not to commercialize all-solid-state batteries in the next two years” is not a dismissal of the technology’s future; rather, it reflects a sense of responsibility toward the industry and toward consumers.

It is undeniable that all-solid-state batteries represent the future of battery technology for new-energy vehicles. They can effectively address the range and safety challenges inherent in liquid-state batteries, making them a crucial lever for maintaining China’s global leadership in the battery industry.

However, we must remain acutely aware that the commercialization of revolutionary technologies is never achieved overnight. From the laboratory to mass-produced vehicles, countless technical challenges must be overcome, the industrial value chain must be fully developed and integrated, and the technology requires time to mature and undergo rigorous market validation.

Today’s new-energy-vehicle market boasts mature liquid-state battery technology, with lithium iron phosphate and ternary lithium batteries already fully capable of meeting the needs of the vast majority of consumers.

Rather than waiting for a “myth,” it’s better to embrace the reality that has already taken shape.

As Ouyang Minggao concluded, Pure electric vehicles are the future—there’s no doubt about that. However, on this road to the future, there’s no need for us to rush to catch the very first “early bus.”

Only when the technology has truly stabilized and the price has come down should we make the purchase—that’s what we’d really call “ So fragrant! ”。

Therefore, the academician’s remarks have served to reassure us: No need to rush—good things come to those who wait; let the bullets fly a little longer. 6。